In the Ibero-American countries showing very strong population growth since the beginning of the 20th century, fertility and general and infant mortality rates have fallen sharply over the last 50-60 years. This declining fertility rate, already insufficient to replace the population in many countries of the region, along a very high and increasing life expectancy, predict a demographic decline or aging similar to that of Europe,. The risk is that this will occur without having reached levels of development and general prosperity similar to those of Europe.
According to the latest report 'Iberoamérica: de grandes crecimientos poblacionales al invierno demográfico', written by the CEU-CEFAS Demographic Observatory, Ibero-American countries have undergone a remarkable demographic transformation since the mid-20th century, with large population growth, a drastic drop in the birth rate, a sharp increase in life expectancy, and a considerable net flow of emigration.
The population of Ibero-America has increased more than ten since 1900.
Overall, the region had some 60 million inhabitants at the beginning of the 20th century, and by mid-2023 it had reached 636 million, 10.6 times what it had in 1900. In contrast, Spain, with 18.5 million inhabitants in 1900, even more than Brazil at that time, had a population of 48.8 million in mid-2024 (of which some five million are Ibero-Americans by birth, or their children born in Spain), 2.6 times its population at the beginning of the 20th century.
Fertility has plummeted in the last 50-60 years.
In 1950, the average fertility rate in Ibero-America was almost 6 children per woman. In recent decades, it has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. As with other demographic indicators, there are significant differences in fertility between countries, despite certain trends throughout the region.
If the number of births and fertility continue to fall at the rate projected by the UN, Ibero-America will have a severe aging problem like the one already plaguing Spain and Europe by the middle of this century. This problem will arrive sooner - and in some cases has already arrived - in Puerto Rico, Cuba, Uruguay, Chile, Argentina and Costa Rica. The report stresses that it is essential to take advantage of the next 20 years to complete the development and modernization of Ibero-America, before societies with a smaller labor force supporting the greater public and private spending needs of their growing retired population make it difficult to increase prosperity.
Migration has also played a crucial role in the demographic configuration of the region. Until the first half of the 20th century, countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba were net recipients of massive immigration. Since 1950, the trend has reversed, and the region had more emigrants than immigrants. Mexico has been the country with the largest number of emigrants in absolute terms, largely due to its proximity to the United States. Ibero-America is estimated to have had a net loss of 42.6 million people through emigration between 1950 and 2023. In countries such as Puerto Rico and Cuba, emigration has contributed significantly to population aging. In other countries with high emigration, such as Mexico and Colombia, the high fertility rates they had until a few years ago allowed them to comfortably offset the loss of population due to emigration. Today, without the Venezuelan exodus, net emigration rates would be relatively moderate or non-existent.
Life expectancy has increased by 26 years from 1950 to 2023.
The decline in mortality rates, a very positive development, has also had a strong influence on the demographic evolution of the region. Life expectancy has increased considerably, from less than 50 years in 1950 to almost 76 years in 2023, although the death rate has begun to rise as the population has become older. According to UN projections, the number of deaths in the region will increase by 60% by 2050. The fall in infant mortality in Ibero-America, one of the main factors in the increase in life expectancy, has been higher than the world average, which has also fallen sharply worldwide in the last three quarters of a century.
The case of Venezuela: mass exodus and reduced life expectancy.
Venezuela represents a singular and dramatic case in the demography of Ibero-America in the last twenty years. Until 1967, the country had positive net immigration, but since the mid-2000s, it has experienced one of the largest and fastest exoduses in the region. Between 2003 and 2023, Venezuela had a negative migratory balance of 5.04 million people, according to UN data. 90% of this emigration has happened since 2014, under the presidency of Nicolás Maduro.
In addition, life expectancy in Venezuela has shown a negative trend in recent years, which is a unique case in the region and very rare in the world. According to UN data, between 1950 and 2000, life expectancy at birth in this country grew by just over 21 years. Between 2000 and 2023, it grew by just one tenth of a year (compared to 4.8 years in Ibero-America as a whole). From 2000 to 2010, it increased by just 0.7 years (compared to 2.8 years in Ibero-America as a whole). And since 2010, it has decreased by 0.6 years. Venezuela, which between 1950 and 2000 always had a higher life expectancy than the average for Ibero-America (in 1973, 5 years more in 1973), now has 3.3 years less. This is Aa major negative turnaround. Along the same lines, infant mortality has increased in Venezuela from 14.6 children dying in their first year of life per 1,000 births in 2010 to 15.7 in 2023.
Spain has been an important destination for Latin American emigrants. In the last 30 to 35 years, more than 4 million Hispanic Americans and approximately 160,000 Brazilians have settled in Spain, and they have had nearly one million children in our country. This immigration has had a significant impact on Spanish demographics, representing more than 10% of the current population and around 13% of those under 65 years of age. The most numerous communities are those from Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina, with a considerable percentage of these populations having acquired Spanish nationality. In regions such as Madrid, the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands and Catalonia, those born in Latin America represent a higher percentage of the population than the national average. The report also provides data on the very large Ibero-American colony in the United States, 60% of which is Mexican.
The demographic future of Ibero-American countries.
UN demographic projections for Ibero-America are not positive, as fertility is no longer positive. The region's population is expected to decline from 2050-2060. By 2100, Brazil, for example, which in less than 20 years will begin to see its population decline, will lose more than 22% of its current population. Puerto Rico (-69%) and Cuba (-49%) would face dramatic reductions. A considerable aging of the population is also expected, as 32% of Ibero-Americans will be 65 years of age or older by 2100. Countries such as Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Argentina and Uruguay will also be among those most affected by this aging.
Fertility will also continue to decline, to around 1.6 children per woman in 2100, according to UN projections, which may be optimistic given recent developments in Ibero-America and the world. This trend poses significant challenges for the region, including a shrinking labor force and an increase in the proportion of elderly dependents.
Finally, UN data collected by the report project that in all Ibero-American countries there will be more deaths than births by 2100 - and in the vast majority, much earlier - and that in almost all countries there will continue to be net out-migration, albeit in more moderate volumes overall than in the last 50-60 years.